Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 0.101391 0.112247 0.123360 0.135558 0.148544 0.161931 0.176748
2025-01-26 0.090044 0.107221 0.125631 0.146708 0.170050 0.194992 0.223542
2025-02-02 0.076925 0.097925 0.121380 0.149224 0.181085 0.216127 0.257304
2025-02-09 0.067564 0.091305 0.118798 0.152453 0.192013 0.236539 0.289943
2025-02-16 0.058400 0.083659 0.113942 0.152082 0.198016 0.250783 0.315202
2025-02-23 0.054753 0.082201 0.116023 0.159566 0.212974 0.275259 0.352286
2025-03-02 0.051102 0.080247 0.117098 0.165513 0.225890 0.297253 0.386516
2025-03-09 0.044441 0.073632 0.111682 0.162845 0.227850 0.305839 0.404611
2025-03-16 0.038168 0.066910 0.105567 0.158777 0.227639 0.311460 0.418894
2025-03-23 0.036014 0.065766 0.106685 0.163937 0.238970 0.331201 0.450362
2025-03-30 0.033397 0.063683 0.106324 0.166989 0.247516 0.347476 0.477651
2025-04-06 0.031333 0.062227 0.106675 0.170883 0.257097 0.365052 0.506626
2025-04-13 0.028318 0.059203 0.104853 0.172033 0.263491 0.379208 0.532217
2025-04-20 0.028380 0.061124 0.110274 0.183364 0.283632 0.411223 0.580696
2025-04-27 0.025975 0.058780 0.109282 0.185661 0.291732 0.427932 0.610131
2025-05-04 0.024107 0.057147 0.109214 0.189175 0.301444 0.446765 0.642385
2025-05-11 0.021478 0.053903 0.106466 0.188665 0.305564 0.458289 0.665358
2025-05-18 0.021112 0.054693 0.109977 0.197281 0.322289 0.486411 0.709776
2025-05-25 0.020399 0.054754 0.112291 0.204127 0.336602 0.511448 0.750373
2025-06-01 0.017788 0.050904 0.108077 0.201048 0.336880 0.517786 0.766700
2025-06-08 0.015168 0.046683 0.102964 0.196355 0.334672 0.520658 0.778418
2025-06-15 0.014612 0.046648 0.104822 0.202305 0.347629 0.543926 0.816906
2025-06-22 0.013695 0.045742 0.105127 0.205821 0.357101 0.562546 0.849401